Wanamaker Bet?

The Wanamaker Dilemma

John Wanamaker supposedly said "Half my advertising spend is wasted; the trouble is, I don't know which half." Even a century later, this challenge persists. Marketers and brands still wrestle with figuring out which efforts truly drive sales and which are just noise. Fortunately, modern companies are tackling this problem head-on using a mix of incremental measurement, media mix modeling (MMM), and increasingly, artificial intelligence to illuminate advertising impact beyond guesswork.

Reborn with AI and MMM

The state of the art now moves past basic last-click or multi-touch attribution, which have become nearly impossible to execute accurately given privacy changes and channel fragmentation. Instead, many companies rely on incrementality testing combined with MMM, blending experimental approaches and statistical modeling to reveal the true causal effect of campaigns across all channels. AI helps scale and refine these insights, turning murky data streams into actionable intelligence that spotlight where to allocate spend with confidence, especially across upper- and mid-funnel activities.

Incrementality Testing's Edge

Incrementality measures what happens with your advertising versus what would have occurred without it. Unlike traditional attribution, it uses control groups and holdouts to identify actual lift. Haus is a standout here, using geo-based experiments to deliver daily incrementality reports without relying on cookies or pixel data. Meanwhile, Data Speaks combines AI-powered MMM and incrementality tests with first-party tracking to capture conversions that others miss. These approaches illuminate the true ROI of channels often undervalued, like connected TV and audio.

Choosing the Right Partner

Companies like Data Speaks and Haus lead in integrating AI with MMM and incrementality to handle data fragmentation robustly. For real-time, live purchase data powering audience targeting and measurement, Attain offers strong solutions with Amazon DSP integrations. Meanwhile, Measured and Prescient provide platforms focused on budget optimization and rapid daily updates. In the CTV space, Samba TV and TV Scientific leverage smart TV data for precise audience measurement and targeting.

Further Players to Consider

Incrementality and MMM providers like incrmntal, Keen, Leavened, Liftlab, and Rockerbox offer nuanced measurement and budget planning tools focused on transparency and actionable insights. On the mobile side, platforms such as AppsFlyer, Adjust, branch, and Singular provide robust cross-device attribution and fraud protection.

Augment Measurement with Specialty Tools

For audio, Magellan and Veritonic specialize in tracking podcast and streaming ad effectiveness. Data platforms like Heap and Adriel emphasize unified data visualization and real-time performance dashboards, streamlining insights integration. Other vendors such as NCSolutions and Converge focus on cross-channel analytics and data centralization—key for handling fragmented media environments.

Quick Cheat Sheet: Incrementality & MMM

• Incrementality testing separates cause and effect through controlled experiments, giving true lift measurement.
• Media Mix Modeling uses statistical analysis on aggregated data to allocate ROI across multiple channels.
• AI-enhanced platforms integrate diverse data sources, prioritizing first-party data for accuracy and privacy compliance.
• Look for vendors with strong integrations across digital, CTV, audio, and retail channels for wide coverage.
• Real-time or daily data refreshes help marketers react quickly during high-stakes campaigns like holidays.

Top Companies by Strengths

• Data Speaks and Haus excel in incrementality and MMM backed by AI and privacy-first tracking.
• Attain offers unparalleled live purchase data tied to audience insights, great for retail and marketplaces.
• Measured and Prescient focus on budget optimization with frequent model updates for agility.
• Samba TV leads in CTV measurement, with tools for precise ad targeting and compliance.

Key Takeaways for Marketers

• Traditional attribution is losing ground—incrementality and MMM offer clearer, data-backed insights.
• Privacy regulations demand reliance on first-party data and privacy-centric modeling for reliable measurement.
• Multichannel fragmentation means cross-platform solutions integrating diverse channels are essential.
• Audio and CTV represent high-opportunity, undervalued channels increasingly measurable with modern MMM platforms.
• Choosing vendors involves balancing measurement accuracy, data freshness, channel breadth, and integration ease.